The ghost ofBrian Clough will loom large as Derby County face Nottingham Forest at The City Ground on Friday night priced as bet365’s heavy 23/20 favourites to come away with three points.
It is tough to see too much value in backing a home win at 23/10.
After all, Forest’s 1-0 loss at Preston last weekend marked the occasion of their eighth consecutive Championship fixture without a victory and their fifth defeat in that sequence (D3).
Dougie Freedman’s men come into this fixture just four points outside the Championship drop-zone having won three times in 15 league matches this season (D5-L7) and they have only won one of their last four home fixtures against Derby who they trail by 16 points in the table.
In this context odds of 23/20 on an away triumph begin to look attractive and they are made more so when one accounts for the fact that Paul Clement’s side sit fifth in the table and are just one point off of the lead having won eight and drawn two of their last 10 matches in the Championship.
That said, Forest triumphed on the occasion of the clubs’ most recent meeting at Pride Park back in January.
Tip
I can only see this going one way and the fact that each of Derby’s last three defeats of Forest have been to nil while Freedman’s side have lost their last four in the Championship without scoring makes odds of 13/5 on an away win to nil and 4/5 on -2.5 goals attract.
Eight goal Chris Martin and one goal Dexter Blackstock stand out as anytime scorer options for either side.
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